Trading Strategy: Using Trailing Stops

November 19th, 2006

Trailing Stops can Limit Risk and Lock In Profits

Trailing stops are a great trading strategy that uses stop loss orders. Simply put, as the price of the stock goes up, your trailing stop will also go up. The trailing stop prices are set at a certain percentage (%) below the current price.

As the price of the stock goes up, the trailing stop will also go up. The stop follows, or trails, the stock price, giving us the name “trailing stops”.

Only Raise Your Trailing Stop - Never Lower It!

The advantage of using trailing stops is that you only raise your trailing stop price. You never lower your trailing stop!

Why do you only raise trailing stops? You want to only raise your trailing stops to reduce risk and lock in profits.

Examples of Using Trailing Stops

Here are examples of trailing stops in action.

You buy XYZ stock at 10.00. In this example we will set our trailing stop price at 10% below the current price. Our initial trailing stop will be 9.00. How did I get 9.00? Take 10% of 10.00 to get 1.00. We’ll set the initial trailing stop at 1.00 less than the current price of 10.00. Subtract 1.00 from 10.00 to get 9.00. If the stock price hits 9.00, our trailing stop will sell our position.

Scenario: Stock Moderately Decreases in Price - XYZ stock declines in price! If XYZ declines in price to 9.50, you will not alter your trailing stop - do not lower your trailing stop order price!

Scenario: Stock Sharply Decreases in Price - XYZ is falling fast! First it hit 9.50, then kept dropping and now it is approaching 9.00. When the price of XYZ hits 9.00, our trailing stop will automatically sell the stock. We will have lost 10% of this trade’s value. Keep in mind that this is 10% of only this trade, not 10% of our total portfolio value. We knew we were risking 10% of our money in this trade. This risk is money we were willing to lose. If XYZ keeps falling to 8.00, we’ll be protected thanks to our trailing stop - we will have sold this position (at a loss) at 9.00. Our risk was limited to 10%. If we didn’t have a trailing stop in place, we would currently be down 20% on this trade - 10.00 price falling to 8.00 is 20% decline.

Scenario: Stock Moderately Increases in Price - XYZ stock increases in price! If XYZ stock prices goes up to 11.00, we will alter our trailing stop. The new trailing stop price will be 10% below 11.00. First calculate this price by taking 11.00 * 10% (10% is the same as multiplying by .10). So we have: 11.00 * .10 = 1.10. Second we will calculate the current price of 11.00 minus 1.10. We’ll set our trailing stop price at 11.00 - 1.10 = 9.90. If XYZ stock hits 11.00, our trailing stop will be 9.90.

Scenario: Stock Sharply Increases in Price - XYZ shoots up to 15.00 per share. We’ll have to calculate a new trailing stop price, again 10% lower than the current price. First calculation: 15.00 * 10% (or .10) = 1.50. Second calculation: 15.00 - 1.50 = 13.50. Our new trailing stop price is 13.50. The return rate from 10.00 to 13.50 is 35%! We’ve just locked in 35% in gains. If XYZ hits 13.50, our trailing stop loss order will automatically sell XYZ at 13.50. If XYZ falls to 9.00 per share, we won’t care. We’ve locked in profits and our trailing stop sold our positions for us.

Trailing Stops Reduce Risk

Trailing stops reduce risk by setting an absolute minimum price and monetary value you are willing to risk and possibly lose. For simplicity I will use a trailing stop price of 10% below the current stock price. The trailing stop price you use depends on your trading style, strategy, and amount of risk you are willing to accept. Some people may want to set a trailing stop at 5% below the current price, while others use upwards of 20% below the current price.

Keep in mind that some stocks are volatile and may fluctuate 5% to 10% in price per week. If your trailing stop is set at 5% below the current price, and the stock falls 5% shortly after you buy it, your trailing stop will execute and sell your stock position at a 5% loss. However, if your trailng stop is set at 10% below the current price, the stock price can initially fall 5%, then the stock price may shoot back up. Volatile stocks require careful research and analysis before you determine the trailing stop percentage to use.

Trailing Stops Lock In Profits

Trailing stops lock in profits or reduce losses when the price of the stock goes up. As the stock prices increases, your trailing stop price also increases.

If the stock continues increasing in price - say 20% above the price you purchased at - your trailing stop will lock in 10% in profits. If the stock continues climbing and hits 40% above the price you bought it, your trailing stock will also climb, locking in a 30% gain! When the stock finally declines in price, your trailing stop will sell your position, locking in a gain of 30% profits for you.

Use Trailing Stops!

Everyone should use trailing stops. They benefit you in two ways: reducing risk and locking in profits. Trailing stops are a very important and useful tool available to traders and investors, but many traders do not use them. If you plan on being a successful trader or investor, trailing stops are an easy way to increase your profits and your chances of success.

Introduction to Risk and Risk Management

November 17th, 2006

Risk

Risk is the amount of money you are willing to, and could possibly, lose if your trade or investment is not successful.

Risk Management

Risk management is the planning and strategy developed to reduce your risk - or the amount of money you might lose - in the stock market.

Some people say you should only risk 1-2% of your entire portfolio per trade. This means you are only willing to lose 1-2% of your entire portfolio.

Example of Risk Management

Your entire portfolio value is $10,000. The stock you want costs $2 per share, and you want to buy 1000 shares. Total cost to purchase the 1000 shares is $2000 (not including commissions).

Risking 1% of your entire portfolio value: You will risk 1% of your entire portfolio, or $100 dollars. The share price you should set a stop loss at, with 1% risk, is 1.90 per share.

Risking 2% of your entire portfolio value: You will risk 2% of your entire portfolio, or $200 dollars. The share price you should set a stop loss at, with 2% risk, is 1.80 per share.

Trader’s Toys: Computer Monitor Stand for Six LCD Monitors

November 13th, 2006

Trader’s Toys: Computer Monitor Stand for Six LCD Monitors

Computer Monitor Stand with Six LCD Monitors A trader never seems to have enough screen space to display all the charts, quotes, Level 2, streaming news, and order entry page they use on a regular basis. The Computer Monitor Stand for Six Monitors from Ergo In Demand solves this problem.

The monitor stand for 6 LCDs from Ergo In Demand is a low cost way for traders to significantly expand their available screen space. You can add monitors as you need - perhaps starting with 2 LCDs, then adding 2 more as your budget or trading needs demand.

These monitor stands are not only good for traders and investors, but also web designers, programmers, power eBay sellers, and computer geeks like myself. Plus, they look pretty cool.

Basic Info on the 6 LCD monitor stand

  • Price: $549.95
  • Colors: Silver or Black
  • Monitor size limit: three per row, up to 19″ standard monitors.
  • Limited Warranty: free of defects in material and workmanship for 10 years.
  • Optional lockable Quick Release allows fast interchange of LCD monitors. (RECOMMENDED)
  • Web Site: Computer Monitor Stand for Six Monitors at ErgoInDemand.com

My Watch List: VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF

November 6th, 2006

Total Stock Market

The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (Ticker: VTI) has been added to my Watch List.

VTI tracks about 95% of the top U.S. common stocks, totalling over 1,200 different US stocks. The stocks VTI tracks cover all U.S. markets: NYSE, AMEX, Nasdaq and OTCBB stocks.

Advantages of VTI

VTI is very diversified and when you buy the VTI ETF, you’re buying a small piece of over 1,200 different stocks in the US stock markets. VTI offers a long term, low volatility play for investing. When the markets go up, VTI will go up.

Disadvantages of VTI

Being very diversified, you may miss out on gains from investing in invidual stocks. VTI holding are very spread out, which means your total return on VTI will be about the market average. You shouldn’t expect to sigificantly “beat the market” with VTI. When the markets go down, VTI will also go down.

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Added to My Portfolio: I Bought China

November 5th, 2006

I Bought China

My portfolio has grown a little bit bigger. I bought the PGJ PowerShares ETF which is an ETF focused on China stocks.

I am looking to hold on to PGJ for at least 1 year and I will likely add to my PGJ position.

China

Investing in China was an easy decision for me to make. China has over 1 billion people and this number is rapidly growing. As the Chinese population makes more money and more people enter the middle class, the number of investors will surge, as will the prices of goods. More people will be investing in Chinese stocks. And people will be paying more at the stores, which is more capital for Chinese businesses.

I purchased a PowerShares exchanged traded fund (ETF) - PGJ - comprised of a number of China stocks and ADRs traded in US markets. PGJ is the Golden Dragon Halter USX China Portfolio. My goal with PGJ is to capitalize on the growth of China and to diversify my ETF holdings with some international flavor.

PGJ Info

Last Price: 16.93

Top Holdings:

  • CHL - China Mobile Ltd.
  • PTR - PetroChina Co. Ltd.
  • HNP - Huaneng Power International Inc.
  • CHU - China Unicom Ltd.
  • SNP - China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.
  • LFC - China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (ADS)

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